Monday, July 23, 2007

Newt will get in if Thompson falters

In a recent article, veteran reporter Robert Novak writes that if the Fred Thompson candidacy does not hold up, then Newt Gingrich will run.

While that has been the assumption, seeing it in print, especially in an article by someone with the experience of Novak, gives it more credence.

And that, coupled with the news that Gingrich will have representatives at the Iowa Straw Poll this summer -- which Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Jim Gilmore have already pulled out of -- would make it seem that a Gingrich run for the White House is simply waiting on people getting over their excitement over Thompson, which has nothing to do with issues and everything to do with his being an actor.

Also in that article, Novak points out, as he has in the past, that Newt "bombarded Republican Senate offices with material attacking the immigration bill backed by President Bush, even sending proposed talking points to senators about to meet with the president."

While Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Thompson all opposed the amnesty bill this year, they all were in favor of an even worse bill in 2006.

Indicating that their opposition to it this year was simply for political reasons, Gingrich "weighed in more heavily on the immigration issue than any of the major Republican presidential hopefuls," writes Novak. The former Speaker appeared on talk radio, made YouTube videos, and wrote articles attacking the bill.

Matt Towery, a former chairman of Newt's political organization and who, in March, predicted Newt would eventually get in the race, echoes Novak that how Thompson does will effect what Gingrich does.

But he adds:

"If Thompson somehow falters, Gingrich still waits backstage. Expect him to seize the opportunity if there is one. Has Gingrich outsmarted them all? We can't know yet....But credit Gingrich with having seen as early as last year that too many candidates would start campaigning too quickly, and that they would hemorrhage big money just as quickly."

Longtime conservative activist and author of, among other, the 2006 book "Conservatives Betrayed: How George W. Bush and Other Big Government Republicans Hijacked the Conservative Cause" Richard Viguerie penned an article last week in which he shreds Thompson, saying the former Tennessee senator is not a conservative.

Apart from the concerns most conservatives have with the former actor -- him being only behind John McCain and Russ Feingold in support of their campaign finance reform, for example -- Viguerie says Thompson has failed two important tests: the Goldwater test and the Reagan test.

As opposed to Goldwater, who went after Republicans who did not stand up for principle, Thompson has not actively went after the Republican establishment -- "[a]nd by his silence he has become complicit," says Viguerie.

The Reagan test deals with who he surrounds himself with. Reagan "was at our conservative functions, and not just at the head table -- he mingled with us, listened to our concerns, and made it clear where he stood," writes Viguerie. The future 40th President also had conservatives around him as Governor.

Thompson, in contradistinction, has no movement conservatives around him right now, and was so committed to advancing the conservative cause that he was out of the political scene from 2003 until the middle of this year.

Though Viguerie only discussed Thompson in the article, it's quite clear that if he looked at Newt Gingrich through the same lens, the former Speaker would look much better.

On the Goldwater test -- in short, putting principle above party -- Gingrich would grade much higher, as he has spoken out on any number of issues that has put him at odds with the party's leadership, not the least of which was his criticism of McCain-Feingold.

Gingrich has also been squarely in the middle of the conservative movement for almost 30 years now -- so much so that noted conservative historian Lee Edwards names him one of the four main figures of the movement, along with Robert Taft, Barry Goldwater, and Ronald Reagan. Thompson is not mentioned in the book, published in 1999.

Moreover, Gingrich has, like Reagan, spoke at numerous conservative events, one of which was the 2007 Conservative Political Action Conference. According to everyone there, Newt recieved the largest ovation, and when he walked through the crowd, he was nearly mugged by the 7,000-plus crowd.

If the debate is who is more conservative, Gingrich wins quite comfortably; if the debate is who has done more for the movement, Gingrich wins -- in a landslide.

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